6 Key Steps To Evaluating Machine Prognostic Tools

11 March 2016

So you’ve made the decision that you need a tool to help you understand the performance of your machines and get a better idea of when they’re likely to fail. Your ultimate goal is to reduce unplanned downtime and increase those all important KPI’s – OEE, OTIF, etc. So what are the key features to look out for in such tools?

1 - FOCUS

The whole manufacturing analytics market is becoming quite a crowded place. It seems every analytics product has a solution for predictive maintenance. You need to be clear though on exactly what they’re offering. Most only provide the initial environments for you to create a solution so expect to pay for consultants or in-house developers to tailor it to create your custom solution. This is not an inexpensive task (with significant recurring costs) but may well give you a product that aligns exactly with your own processes and ways of working.  It’s a trade-off that needs to be carefully considered.

2 - SCOPE

Predictive Maintenance is a broad area with different solution types. Some products identify trends in machine usage or spares orders and help you anticipate future needs. Others will look for external influencers (such as humidity levels) to correlate against general machine failures to provide you with insights on external factors. A few will forecast failures for individual machines. You may want to have a combination of these or just one. It depends on your particular situation and the cost-benefit return that makes sense to you.

3 - TIME TO FAILURE

You need to be very clear on what machine forecasting you need and what the product can offer. Diagnostic and analytics products will generally only tell you when thresholds (such as temperature or vibration levels) have been exceeded. Of course, once this happens the time to failure is short if not imminent. Such short warning timescales may be insufficient considering your available maintenance slots and spare part lead times. Machines fail in complex and non-linear ways that are hard to predict. Very few tools are able to genuinely forecast in this context – if they can, it’s at best a couple of days. Therefore, be sure to get evidence of longer term forecasts before you commit on the investment.

4 - FALSE PROMISES

Be aware that prognostics is not synonymous with predictive maintenance, predictive analytics or machine learning. Many vendors with these capabilities alone will claim that they can forecast machine failure. The truth is that these approaches will only work for the simplest of machine failure scenarios. That’s not to say they haven’t got a purpose – they absolutely have – but for scenarios such as described in 2. When sourcing a tool, be sure the vendor has true support for prognostics and the ability to provide extended machine failure forecasts.

5 - COST

Some prognostics tools rely on a heavily customised approach and extensive historic data. These take time and cost to develop and are likely only suitable for very high-value assets. Moreover, it will be unique per machine type so don’t expect it to work across your manufacturing facility. If you need a broader based solution, be sure to enquire about expanding the scope of the tool.

6 - DOMAIN EXPERIENCE

Operating traditional prognostic tools or the newer breed of self-service analytics products requires an awful lot of domain experience and understanding of the wider manufacturing context.  While most diagnostics companies can provide this confidence, be aware that many of the analytics solutions come from IT firms and “IT guys”. This has the benefit of getting the latest tech packaged in an attractive and ‘consumer-like’ way, but may lack some of the deeper domain principles.

 

The overriding consideration is to do your research and get evidence of efficacy. You’ll need to get underneath all the marketing hype and really understand the true capabilities. If you can, demand a free pilot period to evaluate the product.

 

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We’re working with world-leading companies to help them embrace the advantages that PROGNOSYS can bring to machine failure forecasting.

Right now, we’re offering a free pilot of our PROGNOSYS prognostics and condition monitoring software, to let you predict when your machines are likely to fail, without the cost or complexity of traditional solutions.

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